Hey! Our mid-year 2021 Forex outlook is now out!
Short sample of the 2021 mid-year analysis is below. The full analysis is located at our website here.
In this mid-year Fx outlook, we are going to revisit some of the monthly charts that we analyzed in January this year as part of our 2021 yearly outlook.
We’ll also have a look at the outlook for gold - an asset which many investors consider much more relevant in the current “inflation-scare” environment than any analysis of fiat currencies. We discuss the outlook for gold as it
relates to the Fed’s tapering plans as well as the most important technical Support/Resistance zones on gold’s long-term charts.
Sample: Gold technical analysis - The importance of 1700 revealed
The technical situation shows great indecisiveness and conflicting views among gold traders. Technically, there are both bullish and bearish arguments of equal weight at the moment. Below we highlight both arguments:
Bearish gold arguments:
- long-term bullish channel (that connects back to the 2018 lows) was broken in recent weeks
- monthly chart shows big bearish engulfing candle (June)
- bullish breakout above the 1830-1850 resistance was a fake (after the rejection in June)
- death cross on daily chart (50-day crossed below 200-day moving average)
Bullish gold arguments:
- Price rebounds from the latest attempt on 1700 support (therefore, keeping the possibility that the bearish break of the channel support might be a fake one)
- 1700 support is now a double bottom
- Predominant trend is still very much bullish
While it may not be clear whether the bulls or the bears have the stronger arguments, one thing is clear for gold traders. That is the importance of 1700 as a support area.
As can be seen from the chart, 1700 is crucial for both the bulls and the bears in the current context. The bulls will capitulate on a bearish break of 1700, while the bears can’t feel confident in more selling as long as 1700 holds. Therefore, this is the crucial
technical zone to watch in the coming weeks, especially going into the key Fed events in Jackson Hole and the September 22 meeting.
- In case 1700 gives way, heavy selling is likely. Levels as low as 1450 and then 1350 will become realistic scenarios.
- On the other hand, the bulls need to break above the 1850 area to feel more confident that new all-time highs are on the cards for gold
Note: We’ll be taking two weeks off starting from next Monday (August 23), and our weekly analysis and the trade signal newsletters will be on pause for that time. We will return
with the weekly analysis and trade recommendations from September 6. In the meantime, stay tuned for our long-term Forex outlook that will be published later this week.
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Any opinions, news, research, predictions, analyses, prices or other information contained in this newsletter is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. FX Trading Revolution will not accept liability for any loss or damage including, without limitation, to any loss of profit which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.
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