Last week’s EURUSD trading range remained completely inside of the previous week’s trading range (an inside weekly bar), so the technical situation is not much changed compared to 7 days ago. This time, we would like to outline three potential scenarios for EURUSD that may play out in the coming weeks:

• 1^st (base case) - EURUSD follows the downward channel shown on the chart below. That is, it moves higher toward 1.22 in mid-February and then lower toward 1.20 and 1.19 in March. The already established technical zones will give us insights into what EURUSD is doing at any moment. For this scenario, the 1.22 resistance zone needs to hold.
• 2^nd - If, on the other hand, EURUSD stages a momentum break above the 1.22 resistance zone, then new cycle highs will be on the cards, and probably even a move toward 1.25 and higher.
• 3^rd - A more aggressive bearish scenario would be if EURUSD breaks through 1.20 earlier than we expect and continues down through 1.19. In that case, the road for lower levels will be clear, and EURUSD visiting 1.15 will become a realistic possibility again.