Free Profitable Forex Newsletter
Hey! This is Philip with an update on the Forex market of the Free Profitable Forex Newsletter!
Time To Stop & Reconsider What’s Next - Forex Update
Our trade on Silver last week worked as we expected and netted a nice profit of $1.30 per ounce bought (the results of our trade ideas are shown below).
This week, however, we are not recommending any specific trade idea/signal because most pairs look either overbought/oversold; or have reached decisive technical zones that are clashing with the main underlying trends on that pair. Given that the next week also features important events and reports on the calendar, such as the US Non-Farm Payrolls, the probabilities are high that choppy, range-trading behavior across pairs will persist into the next week.
The key aspect to watch for all major Forex pairs remains risk sentiment regarding the global economy and the US-China trade war. USDCNY is seen as a proxy for the US-China relations, and with the pair rising further last week, risk sentiment deteriorated as well. Aside from the usual risk-sensitive JPY and CHF pairs, USDCNY is another pair to keep an eye that is these days closely related to risk-on and risk-off waves in markets.
Trade signals from the past week
- August 14, 2019 - Short EURUSD from 1.1150, trade closed (last Friday August 23) at 1.1100 = +50 pips profit (trade signal sent on Friday, August 9)
- August 16, 2019 - Long USDCHF from 0.9785, trade closed (last Friday August 23) at 0.9840 = +55 pips profit (trade signal sent on Friday, August 16)
- August 23, 2019 – Long Silver (XAGUSD) from $17.20, target reached at $18.50 = +$1.30/ounce profit [equal to 260 Forex pips ($260) assuming we bought 200 ounces Silver on a standard Forex account]. Silver is a highly volatile asset, so the position size should always be carefully considered for each trade.
TOTAL: +365 pips in the past week
TOTAL: +1550 pips profit since October 1, 2018
Safe-Havens To Remain Firm
All in all, the main trends remain in force. Gradual USD strength, and also strength in safe-haven currencies like the Yen and Swiss Franc continue to be the name of the game in Fx. Gold and Silver are also well-positioned and remain firm, though the moves there have traveled far by this point and a correction may be due in the near-term.
In line with the above, we share analysis from some of the top Fx trading desks around the world, as delivered via eFXplus:
BofAML: US Recession Risks Continue To Grow; USD/JPY Towards 101 By Year-End
First appeared on eFXplus on Aug 26 - 11:20 AM
Bank of America Merrill Lynch Global Research discusses USD/JPY outlook and adopts a structural bearish bias, expressing that via holding a short exposure* in its model portfolio. BofAML now targets USD/JPY at 105 by end of Q3, and at 101 by year-end.
"Our US Economics team subjectively estimates the odds of a recession as roughly 1 in 3, with their model of recession implying a lower 20% risk. In the recent release of our 21st Risk Management Survey, which is targeted toward corporates managing and hedging risks such as balance sheet and
cash flow, nearly half of them expect the next recession in the US to start by the end of next year," BofAML notes.
"We expect USD/JPY to reach 101 by December 2019 as the Fed's dovish shift lowers the bar for rate cuts although our forecast assumes our scenario of the global equity market to peak out in 2H19 and head lower," BofAML adds.
Société Générale: Hard To See How USD/CNY Can Rise Further Without Pushing EUR/USD Lower
First appeared on eFXplus on Aug 28 - 11:15 AM
Societe Generale Research notes that the August spike in USD/CNY hasn't dragged EUR/USD down yet. SocGen flags a scope for a catch-up move lower EUR/USD on the back of a further rise in USD/CNY.
"Where the yuan goes next, and how the other major currencies react, will help determine how market sentiment plays out after the summer holidays. Given the importance of the yuan in global trade, a higher USD/CNY rate will surely have an impact on all the major currencies, regardless of this month's G5 resilience. For example, if EUR/USD were to remain at 1.11while USD/CNY rose to 7.5, against a backdrop of USD/CNY
at USD 7.5, EUR/CNY would be back at levels not seen for 5 years and the euro's trade-weighted value would be above its recent early 2018 peak," SocGen notes.
"We find it hard to see how USD/CNY can rise that far without pushing EUR/USD lower, or forth matter, without propelling the dollar, overall, to new highs," SocGen adds.
These insights are from the eFXplus service which provides daily price-based FX data 24/5 derived from banks and institutions and Thomson Reuters IFR Markets.
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Any opinions, news, research, predictions, analyses, prices or other information contained in this newsletter is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. FX Trading Revolution will not accept liability for any loss or damage including, without limitation, to any loss of profit which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.
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